Israel Will Not Attack Iran. Period.


“I shall repeat categorically: Israel Will NOT Attack Iran.”

By Uri Avnery

Everybody knows the scene from school: a small boy quarrels with a bigger boy. ‘Hold me back!’ he shouts to his comrades, ‘Before I break his bones!’

Our government seems to be behaving in this way. Every day, via all channels, it shouts that it is going, any minute now, to break the bones of Iran.

Iran is about to produce a nuclear bomb. We cannot allow this. So we shall bomb them to smithereens.

Binyamin Netanyahu says so in every one of his countless speeches, including his opening speech at the winter session of the Knesset. Ditto Ehud Barak. Every self-respecting commentator (has anyone ever seen a non-self-respecting one?) writes about it. The media amplify the sound and the fury.

“Haaretz” splashed its front page with pictures of the seven most important ministers (the “security septet”) showing three in favor of the attack, four against. 

A German proverb says: “Revolutions that are announced in advance do not take place.” Same goes for wars.

Nuclear affairs are subject to very strict military censorship. Very very strict indeed.

Yet the censor seems to be smiling benignly. Let the boys, including the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense (the censor’s ultimate boss) play their games.

The respected former long-serving chief of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, has publicly warned against the attack, describing it as “the most stupid idea” he has ever heard”. He explained that he considers it his duty to warn against it, in view of the plans of Netanyahu and Barak. 

On Wednesday, there was a veritable deluge of leaks. Israel tested a missile that can deliver a nuclear bomb more than 5000 km away, beyond you-know-where. And our Air Force has just completed exercises in Sardinia, at a distance larger than you-know-where. And on Thursday, the Home Front Command held training exercises all over Greater Tel Aviv, with sirens screaming away.

All this seems to indicate that the whole hullabaloo is a ploy. Perhaps to frighten and deter the Iranians. Perhaps to push the Americans into more extreme actions. Perhaps coordinated with the Americans in advance. (British sources, too, leaked that the Royal Navy is training to support an American attack on Iran.)

It is an old Israeli tactic to act as if we are going crazy (“The boss has gone mad” is a routine cry in our markets, to suggest that the fruit vendor is selling at a loss.) We shall not listen to the US any more. We shall just bomb and bomb and bomb.

Well, let’s be serious for a moment.

Israel will not attack Iran. Period.

Some may think that I am going out on a limb. Shouldn’t I add at least “probably” or “almost certainly”?

No, I won’t. I shall repeat categorically: Israel Will NOT Attack Iran. 

Since the 1956 Suez adventure, when President Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered an ultimatum that stopped the action, Israel has never undertaken any significant military operation without obtaining American consent in advance.

The US is Israel’s only dependable supporter in the world (besides, perhaps, Fiji, Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau.) To destroy this relationship means cutting our lifeline. To do that, you have to be more than just a little crazy. You have to be raving mad.

Furthermore, Israel cannot fight a war without unlimited American support, because our planes and our bombs come from the US. During a war, we need supplies, spare parts, many sorts of equipment. During the Yom Kippur war, Henry Kissinger had an “air train” supplying us around the clock. And that war would probably look like a picnic compared to a war with Iran.

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Let’s look at the map. That, by the way, is always recommended before starting any war.

The first feature that strikes the eye is the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which every third barrel of the worlds seaborne oil supplies flow. Almost the entire output of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Iraq and Iran has to run the gauntlet through this narrow sea lane.

“Narrow” is an understatement. The entire width of this waterway is some 35 km (or 20 miles). That’s about the distance from Gaza to Beer Sheva, which was crossed last week by the primitive rockets of the Islamic Jihad.

When the first Israeli plane enters Iranian airspace, the strait will be closed. The Iranian navy has plenty of missile boats, but they will not be needed. Land-based missiles are enough.

The world is already teetering on the verge of an abyss. Little Greece is threatening to fall and take major chunks of the world economy with her. The elimination of almost a fifth of the industrial nations’ supply of oil would lead to a catastrophe hard even to imagine.

To open the strait by force would require a major military operation (including “putting boots on the ground”) that would overshadow all the US misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can the US afford that? Can NATO? Israel itself is not in the same league.

But Israel would be very much involved in the action, if only on the receiving end.

In a rare show of unity, all of Israel’s service chiefs, including the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet, are publicly opposing the whole idea. We can only guess why.

I don’t know whether the operation is possible at all. Iran is a very large country, about the size of Alaska, the nuclear installations are widely dispersed and largely underground. Even with the special deep penetration bombs provided by the US, the operation may stall the Iranian efforts – such as they are – only for a few months. The price may be too high for such meager results.

Moreover, it is quite certain that with the beginning of a war, missiles will rain down on Israel – not only from Iran, but also from Hizbollah, and perhaps also from Hamas. We have no adequate defense for our towns. The amount of death and destruction would be prohibitive.

Suddenly, the media are full of stories about our three submarines, soon to grow to five, or even six, if the Germans are understanding and generous. It is openly said that these give us the capabilities of a nuclear “second strike”, if Iran uses its (still non-existent) nuclear warheads against us. But the Iranians may also use chemical and other weapons of mass destruction. 

Then there is the political price. There are a lot of tensions in the Islamic world. Iran is far from popular in many parts of it. But an Israeli assault on a major Muslim country would instantly unite Sunnis and Shiites, from Egypt and Turkey to Pakistan and beyond. Israel could become a villa in a burning jungle.

But the talk about the war serves many purposes, including domestic, political ones.

Last Saturday, the social protest movement sprang to life again. After a pause of two months, a mass of people assembled in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square. This was quite remarkable, because on that very day rockets were falling on the towns near the Gaza Strip. Until now, in such a situation demonstrations have always been canceled. Security problems trump everything else. Not this time.

Also, many people believed that the euphoria of the Gilad Shalit festival had wiped the protest from the public mind. It didn’t.

By the way, something remarkable has happened: the media, after siding with the protest movement for months, have had a change of heart. Suddenly all of them, including Haaretz, are sticking knives in its back. As if by order, all newspapers wrote the next day that “more than 20,000” took part. Well I was there, and I do have some idea of these things. There were at least 100,000 people there, most of them young. I could hardly move.

The protest has not spent itself, as the media assert. Far from it. But what better means for taking people’s minds off social justice than talk of the “existential danger”?

Moreover, the reforms demanded by the protesters would need money. In view of the worldwide financial crisis, the government strenuously objects to increasing the state budget, for fear of damaging our credit rating.

So where could the money come from? There are only three plausible sources: the settlements (who would dare?), the Orthodox (ditto!) and the huge military budget.

But on the eve of the most crucial war in our history, who would touch the armed forces? We need every shekel to buy more planes, more bombs, more submarines. Schools and hospitals must, alas, wait.

So God bless Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Where would we be without him?    

- Uri Avnery is an Israeli peace activist and a former Knesset member. He is the founder of Gush Shalom.

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6 thoughts on “Israel Will Not Attack Iran. Period.

  1. Israel, the US and Britain have nuclear and chemical/biological weapons, not Iran. Israel, the US and Britain wage wars in the Middle East based on lies, not Iran. Israel, the US and Britain kill innocent civilians with carpet bombing and cruise missiles, not Iran. Israel crushes helpless peace activist to death with giant bull dozier and the US and Britain rewards them for it, not Iran. Israel attacks American ship USS Liberty and machine guns helpless, American survivors hanging on to life rafts and the US and Britain rewards them for it, not Iran. Israel attacks unarmed flotilla ship bringing medical supplies and food to helpless victims, many or them children and elderly and the US and Britain rewards them for it, not Iran Israel refuses to abide by international law and the US and Britain reward them for it, not Iran.I could go on and on. I ask you… who is really a threat to world peace?

  2. Needless to say on this site, I agree with Kenzo (above) 1000%. However, if Iran doesn’t in fact have chemical and biological weapons, perhaps it SHOULD have them! The Iranians will need them in the onslaught that is building against them, an onslaught that, if not participated in by Israel, will certainly involve Israel at some point, as it will the entire Middle East, and that will absolutely involve the Zionist-occupied United States and NATO.

    With regard to Avnery’s article, then, he is probably correct. (Avnery is very astute, but I consider him a hypocrite and liar because he only appears to oppose Zionism while remaining a Zionist! I’ve long regarded him as an Israeli intelligence asset.) Israel has always specialized in manipulating its goy slaves to fight its wars for it, and this war will probably be no different. Besides, the IDF is always needed to ensure that Israel can oppress and kill the Palestinians on a moment’s notice, on any pretext.

    Israel might be ready to break that mold, however, at least somewhat. I just watched a video address by Sheik Imram Hosein. I don’t know where it was recorded. Perhaps it was at the Conference now taking place in Teheran. The Sheik thinks, as I do, that the “Arab Spring” uprisings, especially in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, have been manipulated to happen by Western nations, apparently to provide the pretext for NATO and American intervention in those countries. The goal of this intervention is not Iran, but EGYPT. Egypt, he says, cannot be subdued only with the use of drones and bombing. It has to be invaded by ground forces. He believes that the strategy of the West is to invade Egypt at the right moment from the West, from LIbya, and from the East, from Israel. NATO warships would have already been positioned for a blockade of Lower Egypt before the start of the land invasion. Israel, he says, wants Egypt to be subdivided, or Balkanized, into several smaller states, so that it will never again pose a threat to it.

    I hope Sheik Hosein is wrong, because if he’s not it would mean that Egypt’s brief hope for a new dawn of freedom is about to be crushed under Israeli and NATO boot heels. Given the horrific state of our world, however, such a thing is all too plausible.

  3. I am amazed how you think. Since the split of Judah and northern Israel, the people have been sheep to the slaughter for over 2700 years. You speak of a little boy being held back, but I see a brave boy that is right and he reminds me of David. He holds in his hand a deadly weapon that makes brute stupid strength of Goliath into nothing.

    I suppose you were all for The Gaza pullout? How is that working out? I guess you don’t here the angry hateful remarks of the kids in the United States and other nations against Israel. I do. Do you think they have anything at all to do with what the Jewish people do or don’t do? It does not! It is no different then when people blamed the Jews for poisoning wells. Who knew, a few hundred years layer the culprit was a rat flea?

    Is 2700 years of slaughter not enough for you? Israel better unite and they better agree that there is only one land where they should all agree to work and produce on. Those that don’t learn from history are bound to see it repeated.

    G-d bless Israel, and G-d bless you as well.

    • Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.

  4. Pingback: Newt Gingrich Financier “Wishes he fought for Israel Not America” « The Ugly Truth

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